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					</table><p>India’s National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC) has forecast that energy shortages will be more pronounced from April to October with the most significant shortages to be recorded in May. The unmet demand during the non-solar hours could exceed 15 GW between April and September.</p>
<p>The Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) during the year will likely be 5.8%, and the Normalized Energy Not Served (NENS), 0.17% in the best-case scenario. In the median scenario (the most likely scenario), the LOLP is 12.1%, and the NENS is 0.37%, according to the NLDC report published by the <a href="https://posoco.in/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Grid Controller of India</a>.</p>
<p>The LOLP is forecast at a high of 31.05% in May, followed by June at 20.14% in the median case scenario.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-77248 size-full" src="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Power-demand-in-summer-1.png" alt="Power demand in summer" width="712" height="450" srcset="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Power-demand-in-summer-1.png 712w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Power-demand-in-summer-1-300x190.png 300w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Power-demand-in-summer-1-650x411.png 650w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Power-demand-in-summer-1-624x394.png 624w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Power-demand-in-summer-1-600x379.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 712px) 100vw, 712px" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>LOLP indicates how often a system cannot meet the electricity load demand. NENS is a metric that indicates the magnitude and duration of energy not being served and expressed in megawatt hours.</p>
<p>Winter shortages are expected in February 2026, particularly during early morning and late evening hours.</p>
<p>India experienced its hottest February since 1901, with the national mean temperature recorded at over 22 degrees. The Indian Meteorological Department has forecast a heat wave in many parts of the country between March and May, raising concerns about how the country will meet the expected surge in demand for electricity this summer.</p>
<p>Power demand has risen over the last few years thanks to heightened industrial activity and adverse climate. The Central Electricity Authority has <a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/india-renewables-meet-peak-demand" target="_blank" rel="noopener">predicted</a> that India’s peak demand could cross 270 GW in 2025.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-77249 size-full" src="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/power-demand-in-summer-2.png" alt="Power demand in summer 2" width="722" height="487" srcset="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/power-demand-in-summer-2.png 722w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/power-demand-in-summer-2-300x202.png 300w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/power-demand-in-summer-2-650x438.png 650w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/power-demand-in-summer-2-624x421.png 624w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/power-demand-in-summer-2-600x405.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 722px) 100vw, 722px" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Power Minister Manohar Lal recently said that until January in the current fiscal year, India had met the power demand of 250 GW and that the expected peak demand of 270 GW would be met.</p>
<p>The shortage in meeting peak demand had reduced from 4.5% in 2014 to 1.4% in 2024. “In the current fiscal year, we had a shortage of merely 0.001% while meeting the power demand,” said Lal.</p>
<p><strong>Shifting Planned Outages</strong></p>
<p>The Resource Adequacy report recommends a strategic shift of planned thermal outages from the high-shortage period between April and July 2025 to the lower-demand months from November 2025 to January 2026 to improve system reliability.</p>
<p>Significant periods of unserved energy (unmet demand) will be observed during May and June when higher energy demand occurs with variability in renewable energy supply. During winter, energy shortages are predominantly observed in the morning and late evening hours, corresponding to increased domestic and commercial energy usage and reduced solar energy availability.</p>
<p>In the median case scenario, unmet demand will be predominantly observed during the non-solar hours of April, May, June, July, and September, often exceeding 15 GW. In January and February 2026, high unserved energy is expected during morning and evening ramp-up periods.</p>
<p><strong>Optimizing Energy Storage</strong></p>
<p>The Resource Adequacy report emphasizes the importance of integrating flexible generation resources to enhance system adequacy and mitigate supply shortages. As a key strategy to strengthen grid stability, it recommends optimizing battery energy storage systems (BESS) and pumped storage projects (PSP) charge-discharge cycles, particularly charging during solar hours (10 – 16 hours) and discharging during demand peaks.</p>
<p>Effectively utilizing spinning reserves (backup power) can address short-term shortages, particularly during high-risk periods. The spinning reserve requirement of 3% of all India demand should be strategically deployed whenever shortages are observed to provide immediate system support.</p>
<p>The report has cautioned that delays in BESS and PSP deployment could exacerbate energy shortages, particularly during high-demand and non-solar hours.</p>
<p>The findings indicate that gas-based generation utilization increases significantly during peak demand periods, but high variable costs result in lower economic viability than other generation sources. Ensuring adequate gas availability during critical shortage periods and implementing cost-based dispatch optimization strategies can enhance system adequacy while maintaining economic efficiency.</p>
<p>Close monitoring of envisaged capacity additions, including 45,878 MW of renewable energy, 17,760 MW of thermal generation, 3,275 MW of hydroelectric generation, 3.9 MW of BESS, and 2.7 MW of PSP, will be crucial to timely commissioning of generation resources.</p>
<p>The report calls for directions under Section 11 of the Electricity Act for imported coal-based thermal stations. Given their higher generation costs, these stations are generally dispatched less frequently. However, during periods of system stress, their optimal utilization can play a crucial role in meeting peak demand.</p>
<p>Section 11 is an emergency provision under which the appropriate government may specify that a generating company must operate and maintain any generating station per the directions of that government. The Union and state governments have <a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/government-ensure-energy-demand-summer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">invoked</a> this measure in recent years.</p>


India Braces for Sizzling Summer; Power Demand to Peak to 270 GW


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					</table><p><a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/indias-power-demand-rise-sharply-256-gw-2024-25" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has forecast an all-India peak power demand of 256.53 GW in financial year (FY) 2024-25, rising sharply from FY 2023-24.</strong></a> Power demand will soar above 256 GW in September 2024, according to the CEA’s prediction. Peak power demand has been rising steadily over the past few years, with September 1 this year recording 240 GW. An increase in industrial activity and an unusually dry August were among the reasons for power demand scaling new heights this year. Insufficient rain during the month led to an increase in the use of pump sets to irrigate agricultural lands with groundwater.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/jaipur-tenders-50-71-mw-solar-projects-kusum" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>Jaipur Vidyut Vitran Nigam has invited bids to install and commission 50.71 MW of grid-connected solar power projects under Component C of the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthaan Mahabhiyaan program for feeder-level solarization.</strong></a> The projects will be developed under the renewable energy service company model. The developer must provide a remote monitoring system and operation and maintenance of the projects for 25 years. The last date for submission of bids online is October 26, 2023. Bids will be opened on October 30.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/servokon-to-manufacture-solar-in-uttar-pradesh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>Servokon Systems, a power equipment manufacturer, plans to invest over ₹2 billion (~$24 million) in a new manufacturing facility for both transformers and solar modules in Hapur, Uttar Pradesh.</strong></a> Besides setting up a solar module manufacturing facility, Servokon will manufacture transformers up to 220 kV class. The company did not disclose the capacity of the solar manufacturing unit. The manufacturing facility, spanning an area of approximately 25,000 square meters, is expected to be operational between the end of 2024 and January 2025.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/cesl-invites-for-bids-cars-across-india" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>Convergence Energy Services, a wholly owned subsidiary of Energy Efficiency Services, has invited bids to appoint a service provider to deploy 2,000 electric cars on a PAN-India basis.</strong></a> The last date for the submission of bids is October 13, 2023. Bids will be opened on the same day. The electric vehicles are to be deployed in two zones, Zone 1 and Zone 2. Bidders should submit a bid security of ₹41.38 million (~$497,849) for each zone. Bidders can quote for one zone or both zones.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/delhi-transport-electric-two-wheelers" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>The Delhi Transport Department has invited bids to select service providers to deploy high-speed and low-speed electric scooters and e-bicycles to enhance last-mile connectivity to metro stations and bus stands within the Dwarka sub-city.</strong></a> The service providers must deploy a combined fleet of 2,000 high-speed and low-speed electric scooters and 1,000 e-bicycles for seven years and ten months from the agreement’s signing date. The last day to submit the bids is October 20, 2023. Bids will be opened on the same day.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/rajasthan-five-year-extension-expired-ppas-wind-projects" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>The Rajasthan Electricity Regulatory Commission, in a recent order, granted approval to Rajasthan Urja Vikas Nigam (RUVNL) to extend the power purchase agreements (PPAs) with 12 wind power generators by five years.</strong></a> It said that the tariff for the extended period will be ₹2.44 (~$0.029)/kWh as mutually agreed between RUVNL and the 12 wind power generators. The state regulator said that RUVNL and the generators might sign supplementary PPAs to extend their earlier PPAs. RUVNL had filed a petition seeking the extension of PPAs with 12 wind power generators per the terms of Tariff Determination Regulations 2020.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/us-grid-scale-energy-storage-q2-2023" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>The energy storage market in the United States, including grid-scale, residential and community, commercial, and industrial segments, experienced an 80% year-over-year growth in the second quarter of 2023,</strong></a> adding a total of 5,597 MWh, found the latest report by Wood Mackenzie and American Clean Power Association. The report reveals that the grid-scale energy storage segment was pivotal in driving this growth with 5,109 MWh, an impressive 172% quarter-over-quarter expansion. California emerged as the leader in this sector, contributing 738 MW and accounting for a substantial 49% share of the total installed capacity.</p>


Daily News Wrap-Up: India’s Peak Power Demand to Spike Over 256 GW in FY 2024-25


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					</table><p>The Central Electricity Authority (<a href="https://cea.nic.in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CEA</a>) has forecast an all-India peak power demand of 256.53 GW in financial year (FY) 2024-25, rising sharply from FY 2023-24.</p>
<p>Power demand will soar above 256 GW in September 2024, according to the CEA’s prediction.</p>
<p>Peak power demand has been rising steadily over the past few years, with September 1 this year <a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/dry-august-sparks-demand-across-india" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recording</a> 240 GW. An increase in industrial activity and an unusually dry August were among the reasons for power demand scaling new heights this year. Insufficient rain during the month led to an increase in the use of pump sets to irrigate agricultural lands with groundwater.</p>
<p>In terms of units, the energy requirement in 2024-25 is expected to touch 1,736,357 MUs.</p>
<p>The power requirement is forecast to be above 230 GW from April 2024 to March 2025, except for three months &#8211; October, November, and December 2024.</p>
<p>The northern region will see a peak demand of 90.6 GW in August 2024, the western region 76.43 GW in March 2025, the southern region 73.11 GW in March 2025, the eastern region 36.33 GW in September 2024, and the north-eastern region 4.29 GW also in September 2024.</p>
<p>On September 1 this year, when power demand hit a new high, coal accounted for 70% of the generation, hydroelectricity 14%, and renewables 9%. Lignite, nuclear, gas, naphtha, and diesel made up for the remaining 7%.</p>
<p>The southern states accounted for the highest share of renewables in overall power generation at 18.25%, with the northern region coming in second at 11.03%.</p>
<p>The lower-than-desired share of renewables in electricity generation could once again see India leaning heavily on coal. While India has seen a steady rise of renewables in the power mix, the pace of capacity additions has left much to be desired. The government has been taking steps to ensure higher levels of coal supplies to thermal power plants this year.</p>
<p>India added a mere 1.7 GW of solar capacity in the second quarter of Q2 2023, with installations dropping nearly 10% from 1.9 GW in the previous quarter. Capacity additions fell almost 58% year-over-year from 4 GW, according to Mercom’s <a href="https://www.mercomindia.com/product/q2-2023-india-solar-market-update" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q2 2023 India Solar Market Update</a>.</p>


India’s Power Demand to Rise Sharply to Over 256 GW in FY 2024-25


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					</table><p>The <a href="https://powermin.gov.in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ministry of Power</a> has devised a comprehensive strategy to ensure the availability of power during the summer.</p>
<p>In a meeting chaired by the Union Power Minister, R.K.Singh, the government outlined several steps that would be undertaken to meet the growing power demands in the coming months.</p>
<p>The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) estimates that the peak electricity demand will reach 229 GW during April.</p>
<p>The all-India peak power demand had <a href="https://mercomindia.com/peak-power-demand-touches-all-time-high-of-201-gw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">touched</a> an all-time high of 201.1 GW on April 26, 2022, surpassing the peak power demand of 200.5 GW met on July 7, 2021.</p>
<p>As part of the strategy, the power utilities have been instructed to conduct maintenance for coal-based power plants well in advance to avoid scheduled maintenance during the crunch period.</p>
<p>Under Section-11 of the Electricity Act, directions have already been <a href="https://mercomindia.com/government-imported-coal-power-plants-full-capacity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issued</a> to all imported coal-based plants to operate at full capacity starting from March 16, 2023. Adequate coal supplies would be provided to the coal-based power plants.</p>
<p>The Ministry of Railways has agreed to allocate 418 railcars to various subsidiaries of Coal India and captive blocks and will increase the number to maintain sufficient coal stocks at power plants.</p>
<p>To meet any peak demand, gas-based power will also be utilized.</p>
<p>The Power Ministry has instructed NTPC to operate its 5,000 MW gas-based power stations during April and May. Other entities will add 4,000 MW of gas-based power capacity during the summer.</p>
<p>All hydropower plants have been directed to work with Regional Load Despatch Centers and State Load Despatch Centers to optimize water usage in the current month for better availability in the future.</p>
<p>Singh said new coal-based plants would be commissioned by the end of this month, with an additional capacity of 2,920 MW. Two thermal power units at Barauni (2 X 110 MW) will also be available during the period.</p>
<p>With the GDP growing at nearly 7%, the power demand in the country has been increasing at close to 10% per year. According to CEA estimates, the energy demand in April 2023 is expected to be 142,097 MU, the highest in 2023, before decreasing to 141,464 MU in May 2023 and declining further to 117,049 MU by November.</p>


Government Outlines Strategy to Meet Upcoming Peak Power Demand


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					</table><p>Energy consumption from rooftop solar installations is estimated to reach 55.8 billion units (BU) by the year 2031-32, a nine-fold jump from 6 BU in 2021-22, the latest Electric Power Survey (EPS) by the Central Electricity Authority (<a href="https://cea.nic.in/?lang=en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CEA</a>) said.</p>
<p>CEA arrived at the projection by estimating the total rooftop solar installed capacity by 2031-32 to be 50 GW.</p>
<p>The report said with increasing rooftop solar installations, power demand from the grid is expected to decrease in proportion.</p>
<p>India has committed to increasing the share of installed capacity from non-fossil-fuel sources to 40% of the total by 2030.</p>
<p>CEA issued the forecast on the assumptions of the Capacity Utilization Factor (CUF) at 17% and the consumption from the installed capacity at 75%.</p>
<p><strong>Total energy demand</strong></p>
<p>India’s total energy requirement for 2031-32 is estimated to jump by 44% to 2,473 billion units from 1,381 BU in 2021-22, the Survey said.</p>
<p>The electricity demand during 2021-22 reached 203.1 GW and is set to peak at 366.39 GW by 2031-32, a jump of 45%.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://mercomindia.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/CEA-Indias-Energy-Demand.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-45287 size-full" src="https://mercomindia.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/CEA-Indias-Energy-Demand.png" alt="CEA-India's Energy Demand" width="776" height="258" srcset="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/CEA-Indias-Energy-Demand.png 776w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/CEA-Indias-Energy-Demand-300x100.png 300w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/CEA-Indias-Energy-Demand-768x255.png 768w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/CEA-Indias-Energy-Demand-650x216.png 650w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/CEA-Indias-Energy-Demand-624x207.png 624w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/CEA-Indias-Energy-Demand-600x199.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 776px) 100vw, 776px" /></a></p>
<p>The CEA survey said that the <a href="https://mercomindia.com/electric-vehicle-sales-up-1h-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sale</a> of electric vehicles (EVs) would contribute to higher electricity consumption and peak demand.</p>
<p>It estimated that 14% of all vehicles on that road will be battery-electric vehicles (BEV) by 2031-32. The energy required to sustain these vehicles would stand at 27 BU for BEV, and the peak demand generated would be 5 GW.</p>
<p><strong>Green hydrogen</strong></p>
<p>The survey projected that India will produce approximately 10 million metric tons (MMT) of green hydrogen by 2030. CEA assumed that 1 kg of hydrogen would require 50 units of electricity.</p>
<p>The additional energy required for the country on account of green hydrogen production has been estimated at 250 BU by 2031-32, the survey said.</p>
<p>The survey said that half of the energy needed to produce green hydrogen is likely to be met through remote mode, while the remaining half would be met through co-location mode, which is considered under captive power consumption.</p>
<p>The government earlier this year <a href="https://mercomindia.com/new-green-hydrogen-policy-step-net-zero-emissions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the Green Hydrogen Policy, which aims to make India a green hydrogen production hub by the end of the decade.</p>
<p>As the economy stabilized from the aftermath of COVID-19 and institutions and offices reopened, India’s peak power demand hit an all-time <a href="https://mercomindia.com/peak-power-demand-touches-all-time-high-of-201-gw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">high</a> of 201.066 GW in April this year, with an 8.9% growth in energy demand— surpassing the peak of 200.539 GW met in July 2021.</p>


Energy Consumption from Rooftop Solar Systems to Grow Nine Times by 2031-32: CEA

<p>India&#8217;s energy supply deficit for the financial year (FY) 2020-21 stood at 0.4%, with the peak power deficit also narrowing down to 0.4% during the year, according to the data released by the Central Electricity Authority (<a href="https://cea.nic.in/?lang=en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CEA</a>).</p>
<p>In FY 2019-20, the country&#8217;s energy supply deficit <a href="https://mercomindia.com/india-power-supply-deficit-fy-2019-20/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stood</a> at 0.5%, while the peak power deficit was 0.7%.</p>
<p>For the FY ending March 31, 2021, the total power supplied was 1.271 trillion units (TU), against the demand of 1.275 TU, a shortfall of 0.4%. For the fiscal year 2021, the country met the peak power demand of 190.19 GW with 189.39 GW, a deficit of 0.4%.</p>
<p>In March 2021, 120.64 MW of energy was supplied against the demand of 121.21 MW, a shortfall of 0.5%. The country met the peak power demand of 186.39 MW for the month with 185.89 MW.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-27005 size-full" src="https://mercomindia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Region-wise-Energy-Supply-Position-and-Peak-Demand-for.png" alt="Region-wise Energy Supply Position and Peak Demand for Apr-Mar 2021 " width="579" height="406" srcset="https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Region-wise-Energy-Supply-Position-and-Peak-Demand-for.png 579w, https://mercomindia.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Region-wise-Energy-Supply-Position-and-Peak-Demand-for-300x210.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 579px) 100vw, 579px" /></p>
<p>The northeastern region, comprising Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura, recorded the highest energy supply deficit for 2.5% for the FY 2020-21, and the peak power deficit stood at 5.7%.</p>
<p>The region was supplied 16.53 BU of energy against a demand of 16.96 BU between April 2020 and March 2021. In terms of peak power deficit, the region met 3.29 GW of peak demand with 3.1 GW of power.</p>
<p>The western region, which consists of Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Daman &amp; Diu, and Dadra and Nagar Haveli, completely met 387.98 BU of energy demand and 61.77 GW peak power demand during the period.</p>
<p>Similarly, the southern region, comprising Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Lakshadweep, also entirely met the energy demand of 326.84 BU and peak power demand of 58.39 GW.</p>
<p>In the northern region, which consists of Chandigarh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, 392.32 BU of energy was supplied against its requirement of 396.15 BU, representing a deficit of 1%. In terms of peak power demand, the region met 68.29 GW of demand with 67,81 MW – a 0.7% deficit.</p>
<p>The eastern region, comprising Bihar, Damodar Valley Corporation, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Sikkim, and Andaman &amp; Nicobar Islands, met the energy demand of 147.53 BU with 146.99 BU, a shortfall of 0.4%. The region fully met the peak power demand of 24.01 GW.</p>
<p>India&#8217;s power supply deficit had <a href="https://mercomindia.com/indias-power-supply-deficit-narrows/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">narrowed</a> down to 0.3% between April and December 2020, while its peak power deficit had slipped to 0.6% during the period.</p>
<p>In December last year, the Cabinet committee on economic affairs had <a href="https://mercomindia.com/cabinet-approves-plan-for-power-infrastructure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> the revised cost estimate (RCE) for the North Eastern Region Power System Improvement Project with an estimated cost of ₹67 billion (~$910 million). The RCE approval is a significant step towards the economic development of India&#8217;s northeastern region by strengthening the intrastate transmission and distribution systems.</p>


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