Energy consumption from rooftop solar installations is estimated to reach 55.8 billion units (BU) by the year 2031-32, a nine-fold jump from 6 BU in 2021-22, the latest Electric Power Survey (EPS) by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) said.

CEA arrived at the projection by estimating the total rooftop solar installed capacity by 2031-32 to be 50 GW.

The report said with increasing rooftop solar installations, power demand from the grid is expected to decrease in proportion.

India has committed to increasing the share of installed capacity from non-fossil-fuel sources to 40% of the total by 2030.

CEA issued the forecast on the assumptions of the Capacity Utilization Factor (CUF) at 17% and the consumption from the installed capacity at 75%.

Total energy demand

India’s total energy requirement for 2031-32 is estimated to jump by 44% to 2,473 billion units from 1,381 BU in 2021-22, the Survey said.

The electricity demand during 2021-22 reached 203.1 GW and is set to peak at 366.39 GW by 2031-32, a jump of 45%.

The CEA survey said that the sale of electric vehicles (EVs) would contribute to higher electricity consumption and peak demand.

It estimated that 14% of all vehicles on that road will be battery-electric vehicles (BEV) by 2031-32. The energy required to sustain these vehicles would stand at 27 BU for BEV, and the peak demand generated would be 5 GW.

Green hydrogen

The survey projected that India will produce approximately 10 million metric tons (MMT) of green hydrogen by 2030. CEA assumed that 1 kg of hydrogen would require 50 units of electricity.

The additional energy required for the country on account of green hydrogen production has been estimated at 250 BU by 2031-32, the survey said.

The survey said that half of the energy needed to produce green hydrogen is likely to be met through remote mode, while the remaining half would be met through co-location mode, which is considered under captive power consumption.

The government earlier this year announced the Green Hydrogen Policy, which aims to make India a green hydrogen production hub by the end of the decade.

As the economy stabilized from the aftermath of COVID-19 and institutions and offices reopened, India’s peak power demand hit an all-time high of 201.066 GW in April this year, with an 8.9% growth in energy demand— surpassing the peak of 200.539 GW met in July 2021.