The Indian Ministry of Trade and Commerce has concluded its solar anti-dumping investigations and has recommended imposition of anti-dumping duties on solar cell imports from China, the United States, Malaysia, and Taiwan. This by no means is a “done deal” as this recommendation now moves to the Ministry of Finance, which has to make the final decision. It will be imperative that the Ministry of Finance decides on this sooner than later as project development in India will likely remain frozen until there is absolute clarity around the issue.

The recommended tariffs range from $0.11 to $0.81 per watt. It has been noted that the Ministry of Finance almost always accepts such recommendations, but this is an extraordinary situation that overlaps two administrations each with different views about support for solar. This is a big test for the new Modi administration, which has said the right things about its support for solar during election campaigning, but now will be under enormous pressure to make the right call. As we mentioned in last week’s update, for a sector that hasn’t grown a lot since 2012, imposition of an anti-dumping duty will be disastrous, and will increase uncertainty, and raise solar power prices.