India is likely to have an energy surplus of 2.9% and a peak surplus of 3.4% for the year 2022-23, according to the Central Electricity Authority’s (CEA) latest Load Generation Balance Report (LGBR).

The report anticipates that western, southern, eastern, and northeastern India will see surplus energy generation of 6.3%, 4.1%, 1.3%, and 15.4%, respectively, in 2022-23. Only the northern region is expected to face a deficit of 1.2% during the year, which could be met by surplus power in other regions.

It also expects northern, eastern, north-eastern, and regions to have a peak surplus of 1.8%, 6.7%, and 3.9%, respectively, during the year. The western and southern regions are expected to have a peak deficit of 4.1% and 4.6%.

The CEA expects Delhi, Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Damodar Valley Corporation, Telangana, Kerala, Haryana, West Bengal, and Rajasthan to end up with energy deficits during the year. The widest energy deficit is expected in Delhi (-16.8%) and UT of J&K and Ladakh (-16.3%) in 2022-23.

Delhi, Chandigarh, Haryana, UT of J&K and Ladakh, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Puducherry, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Assam, Manipur, and Nagaland are anticipated to experience peak deficits during the year. The widest peak deficit is expected in Delhi (-28.5%) and Punjab (-22.1%) in 2022-23.

Actual power supply during 2020-21

During the year 2021-22, total ex-bus energy requirement and supply increased by 7.2% each over the previous year, and the peak demand and met increased by 6.3% and 5.6% respectively as compared to 2020-21. The energy requirement registered a 7.2% increase while peak demand grew 6.3% during 2021-22 compared to the previous year.

Capacity additions in 2022-23

The CEA said that it expects around 8,970 MW of power capacity additions during the year, including 6,210 MW of thermal, 2,060 MW of hydropower, and 700 MW of nuclear.

For 2022-23, the Ministry of Power has approved the Gross Generation Program of 1,644 billion units (BU). Thermal is expected to generate 1,258 BU or 77% of the overall generation, while renewable energy sources would generate 184 BU or 11% of the total generation. Hydropower and nuclear will account for 150.66 BU and 43.33 BU of power generation, respectively, in 2022-23.

Anticipated power supply position during FY 2022-23

Per the LGBR for FY 2022-23, an energy surplus of 2.9% (44.40 BU) and a peak surplus of 3.4% (7.24 GW) are anticipated.

The all-India peak power demand touched an all-time high of 201.066 GW on April 26, 2022, surpassing the peak power demand of 200.539 GW met on July 7, 2021.

Last year, the CEA projected that India’s anticipated power supply position for 2021-22 would reflect an energy surplus of 6.4% and a peak surplus of 9.1%.