Climate plans are bending the curve of global greenhouse gas emissions downward but remain insufficient to limit rising temperatures to 1.5°C as set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

According to the Climate Change report released by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), the combined climate pledges of 193 parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5°C warming by the end of the century.

The report also shows that current commitments will increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030 compared to 2010. This is an improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions by 13.7% by 2030.

“The downward trend in emissions expected by 2030 shows that nations have made some progress this year,” said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change. “But the science is clear, and so are our climate goals under the Paris Agreement. We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5°C world. To keep this goal alive, national governments must strengthen their climate action plans and implement them in the next eight years.”

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated in 2018 that CO2 emissions needed to be reduced by 45% by 2030 compared to 2010. However, the latest IPCC report indicated that GHG emissions need to be cut by 43% by 2030. “This is critical to meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of this century and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves, and rainfall,” the report said.

With the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 27) to begin on November 6, 2022, Stiell called on governments to revisit their climate plans to close the gap between where emissions are heading and where science indicates they should be this decade.

Last year, IPCC warned that limiting global warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be impossible unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

According to World Meteorological Organization, power supply from renewable energy sources must double until 2029 to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C.

UN Environment Program released a report that said nations must boost their efforts to adapt to the changing climate scenario to avoid dire consequences in the future. The UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2020 stated that about 72% of countries had adopted at least one national-level plan for adaptation and most developing countries have one in the works.