The United States installed a record 50 GW of new solar capacity in 2024, a 21% year-over-year (YoY) rise, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association’s (SEIA) U.S. Solar Market Insight 2024 Year in Review report.

The capacity addition in 2024 is the highest added to the grid by any energy technology in over two decades, according to the report.

The U.S. solar capacity is expected to reach 739 GW by 2035. However, sudden shifts in federal tax credits, supply chain access, and permitting policies can lead to uncertainty for investors, raise costs for developers and manufacturers, and slow down solar deployment.

Market Segment-Wise Growth

The residential segment installations totaled 4,710 MW in 2024, a 32% decline from 2023. While the interest cuts offered some relief, they came too late in the year to make a significant impact on financing costs. California installations dropped by 45% in 2024 due to the change in net billing, creating uncertainty in the largest residential market.

However, the residential market is expected to bounce back in 2025, with 9% growth after a tough year.

According to the report, the segment is expected to grow more than three times over the next decade, adding over 96 GW by 2035.

The commercial solar segment installed 2,118 MW in 2024, an 8% YoY growth driven by significant deployments in California, Illinois, New York, and Maine.

The community solar segment installed 1,745 MW in 2024, a 35% increase over the previous year. This growth can be attributed to record capacity additions in New York, Maine, and Illinois. Projects in this segment are part of formal programs where multiple residential and non-residential customers can subscribe to the power produced by a local solar system and receive credits on their utility bills.

The report expects the market to bounce back in 2027, with continued growth into 2028 and 2029. This resurgence will primarily occur due to increased retail rates and more projects qualifying for the investment tax credit. It projects an 8% average annual growth over the next five years.

The utility-scale segment installed a record-breaking 41.4 GW in 2024, a 33% YoY increase. Developers installed over 16 GW alone in the fourth quarter (Q4). In SEIA’s Base Case outlook, Wood Mackenzie forecasted the utility-scale segment, adding 356 GW of installed capacity between 2025 and 2035.

The report noted that, despite impressive national volumes in 2024, the capacity additions are expected to level off beginning this year, contracting annually at an average of 8% through 2029.

In 2024, Texas maintained its position as the top-ranked state for new solar capacity installed for the second consecutive year, with 11.6 GW. California came second, beating Florida, and its growth was driven by significant installation volumes in the utility-scale and commercial segments.

Solar Module and Cell Manufacturing

According to the report, U.S. factories can manufacture enough to meet all solar module demand in the country at full capacity.

Domestic module manufacturing capacity increased to 42.1 GW in 2024, a 190% YoY increase from 14.5 GW. This manufacturing is largely concentrated in the south, with 8.6 GW produced in Texas and 8.4 GW in Georgia.

In 2024, cell manufacturing was re-shored for the first time in five years, with Suniva restarting production at its 1 GW factory in Georgia.

Module manufacturing capacity in the U.S. surpassed 50 GW, according to an earlier SEIA report.

In Q3 2024, the U.S. solar industry installed 8.6 GWdc capacity, marking a 21% YoY increase but a 13% decline from the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Solar Market Insight Q4 2024 report by Wood Mackenzie SEIA.