U.S.-based solar energy, battery, and storage services provider Sunrun reported revenue of $537.2 million in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024, a 4.62% decline year-over-year (YoY), which missed projections by $27.74 million.

The decrease in revenue was primarily attributed to a shift toward a higher proportion of subscriber-based agreements, which spread revenue recognition over the long term instead of upfront, despite a strong increase in customer agreements and incentives revenue of 28% year-over-year.

Sunrun reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.37, missing analysts’ expectations by $0.15.

Sunrun reported a net loss of $83.8 million in Q3 2024. This was an improvement compared to the prior year’s net loss of $107 million, highlighting a reduction in costs and efficient operating expense management.

Solar plus storage

Sunrun installed 336 MWh of storage capacity in Q3 2024, the most installed in a quarter and a 92% increase YoY. Storage attachment rates stood at 60%, compared to 33% in Q3 2023, reflecting growing demand for integrated solar-plus-storage solutions. The company has installed 135,000 storage systems amounting to 2.1 GWh across its network.

Solar energy capacity installations reached 230 MW, in line with the high end of guidance and reflecting solid progress. However, this represented an 11% decrease YoY as Sunrun focuses more on integrating storage and building a subscription-based revenue model. The company’s networked solar energy capacity stands at 7.3 GW.

Market outlook

CEO Mary Powell noted that despite potential political challenges, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) remains pivotal for Sunrun’s growth, particularly as it targets investments in states where bipartisan support is strong. “An outright repeal of the IRA is highly unlikely as Americans prioritize affordable, reliable energy, and the IRA’s benefits resonate across party lines,” she emphasized. CFO Danny Abajian added, “Our assumptions for 2025 include a 45% weighted average Investment Tax Credit level, a 7.5% average project-level capital cost, and battery attachment rates at 60%.”

Despite national uncertainty, Sunrun’s position in California, its largest market, remains solid. Powell highlighted California’s return to growth post-NEM change, with Q3 sequential growth at 7-8%, signaling resilience in the face of regulatory changes.

Sunrun reaffirmed its full-year 2025 cash generation guidance of $350 million to $600 million. For Q4 2024, the company anticipates cash generation between $50 million and $125 million.

Expected storage capacity installations in Q4 are projected at 320 to 350 MWh, representing a 52% YoY growth.

Sunrun estimates Q4 installations between 240 to 250 MW, reflecting 8% YoY growth, though full-year 2024 capacity is expected to decline 17% YoY due to strategic prioritization of storage and subscription-based customers.

Sunrun’s projected growth next year aligns with its 10-15% long-term installation growth outlook, though Powell reiterated that “our primary focus remains on margins and cash generation, rather than volume alone.” With its strategic shifts and operational successes, Sunrun is well-positioned for steady growth and profitability, focusing on sustainable practices and high-value customer offerings.

Sunrun reported a total revenue of $523.9 million for the second quarter of 2024, marking an 11% YoY decline.

Last year, Sunrun closed $835 million in non-recourse financings to help the company maintain its growth trajectory across various segments in its business, including energy storage and the diverse services it offers to its customers.