Renewable electricity capacity additions soared globally in 2023, reaching an estimated 507 GW. This marked a nearly 50% increase from the previous year, driven by sustained policy support across over 130 countries.

The findings are part of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report on renewables 2023 analysis and forecast for 2028.

The global acceleration in 2023 was primarily fueled by the year-on-year expansion of the booming solar market in China, which grew 116%, and the wind market, which saw a 66% growth.

Over the next five years, renewable power capacity are expected to rise, with solar and wind projected to constitute 96% of this increase. This is attributed to their lower generation costs compared to fossil and non-fossil alternatives in most countries, coupled with ongoing policy support.

Solar and wind additions are forecast to more than double by 2028 compared with 2022, continuously breaking records over the forecast period to reach almost 710 GW.

Projected for 2028, the potential for renewable electricity generation is poised to reach approximately 14,400 TWh, reflecting a 70% increase since 2022.

Over the next five years, a series of significant milestones in renewable energy are anticipated:

• In 2024, variable renewable generation is expected to exceed hydropower
• By 2025, renewables are projected to outpace coal-fired electricity generation
• Additionally, in 2025, wind energy is likely to surpass nuclear electricity generation
• In 2026, solar is expected to surpass nuclear electricity generation
• Finally, by 2028, solar is projected to exceed wind electricity generation

In 2028, renewable energy sources could account for 42% of global electricity generation, with the wind and solar share making up 25%.

Renewables now stand as the primary energy source for electricity generation in 57 countries, predominantly driven by hydropower. However, these nations collectively contribute to just 14% of the global power demand.

Projections indicate that by 2028, 68 countries will have renewables as their predominant power generation source, yet they will still only constitute 17% of the global demand for power.

Growth in China and India

In the coming five years, China is poised to experience a threefold increase in its growth of renewable electricity capacity compared to the previous five years. The country is projected to contribute 56% to the global expansion in this period.

Over the 2023-2028 timeframe, China’s deployment of renewable capacity is anticipated to be nearly four times that of the European Union and five times that of the U.S., which are expected to remain the second and third-largest growth markets.

Globally, renewable capacity is expected to witness a substantial increase of almost 430 GW during 2023-2028, representing a 73% growth from 2022, with the Asia Pacific region leading the way. India is anticipated to account for half of the region’s growth, with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations contributing 14% and Japan 11%.

India, in particular, is expected to add 205 GW of renewable capacity over 2023-2028, doubling its cumulative installed capacity from 2022 and positioning itself as the world’s third-largest market for renewables.

This positive outlook is attributed to increased auction volumes, the introduction of a closed-envelope bidding process for wind projects, improvements in grid-access rules for commercial-distributed photovoltaics, and the resolution of a majority of overdue payments to generators.

These strategic measures are anticipated to propel India closer to achieving its ambitious goal of installing 500 GW of non-fossil-based capacity by 2030.

Given the current policies and market dynamics, global renewable capacity is projected to reach 7,300 GW by 2028.

However, under this growth trajectory, the world would only achieve a 2.5-fold increase in capacity by 2030, falling short of the goal to triple.

Challenges

To bridge this gap and surpass 11,000 GW by 2030, governments must proactively address challenges and expedite the implementation of existing policies.

These challenges can be categorized into four main areas, with variations among countries:

• Uncertainties in policies and delayed responses to the evolving macroeconomic landscape
• Insufficient investments in grid infrastructure hinder the rapid expansion of renewables
• Bureaucratic hurdles in administrative processes, permitting procedures, and social acceptance issues
• Inadequate financing in emerging and developing economies.

The findings of this report’s accelerated scenario demonstrate that tackling these challenges can result in an almost 21% higher growth in renewables, steering the world toward achieving the global commitment to tripling renewable capacity.

IEA said in a report that the world must add or replace 80 million kilometers of electricity grids by 2040, which are equal to all grids globally today, to meet national climate targets and support energy security.

According to a report by IEA and International Finance Corporation, to meet the growing energy demand while aligning with the goals of the Paris Agreement, the annual investment in clean energy will have to increase by more than triple from $770 billion in 2022 to approximately $2.2-2.8 trillion per year by early 2030.