The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has released a new report saying the world must achieve a minimum annual growth rate of 16.4% in renewable energy installations to triple capacity by 2030, a target set at COP28 in the UAE.

IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera stressed that while renewable energy outperforms fossil fuels, the current pace is lacking. “If we continue with the current growth rate, we will only face failure in reaching the tripling renewables target,” he said. He emphasized that this shortfall risks undermining the goals of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The report reveals that if last year’s 14% increase rate continues, the world will fall 1.5 TW short of the 11.2 TW target by 2030, missing it by 13.5%. If growth reverts to the historical 10% rate, it would result in only 7.5 TW of renewable capacity by 2030, nearly one-third below the target.

IRENA’s revised figures show that at the end of 2023, renewable energy capacity accounted for 3.9 TW, or 43%, of the 9 TW of global total capacity, including non-renewables. This indicates an unprecedented 14% increase from 2022. Such growth established a recent trend of 10% compound annual growth rate (from 2017- 2023). Within renewables, variable renewable capacity grew by 23.4% over 2022 to reach 27.1% of total capacity.

In 2023, solar energy was the largest source of renewable capacity at 36.7% or 1,418 GW, followed by 32.7% hydropower (1,265 GW), 26.3% wind energy (1,017 GW), 3.9% bioenergy (149 GW) and traces of geothermal and marine energy. The share of variable renewables (wind and solar) has increased to 63% of renewable capacity, indicating a shift towards these more intermittent energy sources.

Solar energy’s status as the main source of capacity is likely to remain in future years, as reflected by its predominance in 347 GW out of 473 GW of renewable power additions in 2023.

IRENA also highlighted geographical disparities in renewable energy growth, warning that current concentration patterns could exacerbate the ‘decarbonization divide’ between regions.

COP28 President and head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Sultan Al Jaber, called the report a ‘wake-up call’ for the world. “Governments need to set explicit renewable energy targets, look at actions like accelerating permitting and expanding grid connections, and implement smart policies that push industries to step up and incentivize the private sector to invest,” he said.

According to statistics released in the report, Asia leads global renewable power generation with 3,749 TWh, followed by North America at 1,493 TWh. South America saw a 12% increase to 940 TWh due to hydropower recovery and solar growth; meanwhile, Africa, despite vast potential, grew modestly by 3.5% to 205 TWh in 2022.

Source: IRENA

India’s Growth

According to the report, between 2014 and 2023, India’s total renewable energy capacity grew by 145% to 176 GW, while renewable energy production grew by 70% in the same period.

Of this, hydropower capacity showed a modest rise of 14% during the period while wind power capacity more than doubled and solar power capacity nearly quadrupled. India added over 10 GW of solar capacity in the first quarter of 2024, the highest quarterly installation to date, according to the Q1 2024 India Solar Market Update from Mercom India Research.

IRENA also warned back in March that global renewable energy capacity additions are falling short of targets.