Kerala State Electricity Regulatory Commission (KSERC) has issued the draft framework for resource adequacy planning and regulations, aligning with the central government guidelines.

Stakeholders can send their objections/suggestions before February 25, 2026.

The Commission said the Kerala State Electricity Regulatory Commission (Framework for Resource Adequacy) Regulations, 2026,  are important for Kerala, as the state faced the dual challenges of climate change and rapid injection of renewable energy into the grid. The regulations are underscored by the state’s own target to meet 100% of its energy needs through renewables by 2040.

The framework will outline the state’s mechanism for planning generation resources to reliably meet projected demand with an optimal generation mix and without stressing the grid.

It will also include mechanisms for demand assessment and forecasting, generation and transmission source planning, procurement planning, and monitoring and compliance.

The regulations will apply to generating companies, distribution licensees, the state load dispatch center, the state transmission utility, and other grid-connected entities and stakeholders in the state.

The distribution licensee and state load dispatch center (SLDC) will prepare a long-term distribution resource adequacy plan (LT-DRAP) and a short-term distribution resource adequacy plan (ST-DRAP).

The reserved capacity with the distribution companies (DISCOM) will comprise a mix of long, medium, and short-term contracts to ensure energy security.

However, the Commission emphasized that reliance on power exchanges will be limited to managing the power system during contingencies.

The distribution licensee will establish a dedicated multidisciplinary cell to develop, monitor, and ensure compliance with the resource adequacy plan.

Long-Term Demand Forecast

The long-term demand forecast will entail at least hourly or sub-hourly assessment and forecasting of demand for short- and long-term periods within the distribution utility’s jurisdiction.

The load forecast for a DISCOM will be the sum of the energy forecasts for various power consumer categories, after adjusting for captive prosumer and open access load forecasts.

The peak demand will be determined by considering the average load factor, load diversity factor, seasonal variation factors for the last three years, and the load forecasts.

The DISCOM must also calculate hourly and sub-hourly demand as part of demand assessments.

Short-term Demand Forecasting

The distribution licensee will develop a methodology for hourly or sub-hourly demand forecasting and maintain a historical database for the same.

It will ascertain the hourly load profile based on load research analysis of the influence of demand response, load shift measures, and time-of-use, along with inputs from the SLDC.

The distribution licensee will produce hourly or sub-hourly one-year short-term forecasts and submit them to the SLDC by April 30^tof each year.

SLDC will submit state-level aggregate demand forecasts to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC), the Regional Load Dispatch Center (RLDC), and the Commission by May 31 of each year.

Generation Resource Planning

Generation resource planning will entail assessing existing and contracted resources, measuring capacity, considering capacity credit, and identifying incremental capacity requirements to meet forecasted demand.

Generation resource planning will involve capacity crediting of generation resources, assessing the planning reserve margin, determining resource adequacy requirements, and developing an optimal resource mix to meet the forecasted demand.

Projected hourly or sub-hourly demand for future years will be used in the generation expansion planning model. The model must be capable of simulating on an hourly chronological resolution.

After estimating the demand profile for all future years, the model will optimize to minimize the total system cost to meet future demand. The model must also include several constraints when preparing resource adequacy.

The DISCOM must ensure that the distribution licensee’s total resource adequacy meets the planning reserve margin determined by the CEA and approved by the Commission.

It must also ensure that total generation within its control area and the import of power to its control area are equal to the sum of the demand, the exports from the control area of the distribution licensee, and any energy not delivered or curtailed for each hour.

The DISCOM must account for resource constraints when preparing the resource adequacy plan.

They must also account for operating reserve constraints, demand response, and constraints on the transmission/distribution substation side.

Capacity Crediting of Generation Resources

Each renewable energy generator must provide a firm capacity for its generation.

The distribution licensee can estimate the capacity credits for the respective power generator by averaging the historical contribution of a generator/generator class/storage during peak demand hours.

Capacity credit for renewables can be determined either by assessing their generation during top net load (system-stress) hours or by using the expected load-carrying capability method, which measures how much additional demand the system can reliably serve from the resource.

Ascertaining Resource Adequacy

The SLDC, on behalf of the DISCOM, will submit the demand forecasts for the next 10 years and assessment of existing generation resources required for the LT-national resource adequacy plan (NRAP) and ST-NRAP  to the CEA, NLDC, South Regional Load Dispatch Center, and the Commission by May 31 of every year.

CEA and NLDC will publish the LT-NRAP and ST-NRAP reports by July 31 of each year.

Based on the share in the national peak provided in LT-NRAP, the DISCOM will contract capacities to meet the resource adequacy requirement during the national peak.

DISCOMs must demonstrate 100% tie-up for the first year and a minimum of 90% tie-up for the second year to meet the demand forecasted for the year towards meeting the national peak demand. Only resources with long-term, medium-term, or short-term contracts will be considered for the resource adequacy requirement.

The resource adequacy requirement must be fulfilled through a share of 75-80% of long-term contracts and 10-20% of medium-term contracts. DISCOM cannot meet resource adequacy by purchasing power through power exchanges.

To meet the national peak demand for the subsequent three years, the DISCOM must furnish a plan to the Commission.

The DISCOM must undertake a resource adequacy plan for a 10-year horizon to meet its own peak and electrical energy requirements, and CEA must validate the plan.

The LT-DRAP must be formatted and submitted to CEA for approval by September 30 of each year for the next financial year, and by November 30 to the Commission.

By January 31 of each year, the DISCOM must submit details of the contracted capacities for the ensuing year to meet the resource adequacy requirement of the national peak demand of the SLDC.

SLDC will communicate details of the contracted capacities for the ensuing year and will submit them to the RLDC and, subsequently, to the NLDC.

If the NLDC identifies an energy shortfall for the ensuing year, it will communicate the shortfall to the Commission or facilitate a national-level auction to address it, with participation from DISCOMs.

The contracting for the remaining capacity shortfall must be completed by March, before April 1.

SLDC will also prepare an annual one-year look-ahead ST-DRAP for state-level operational planning. It will aggregate capacities at the state level and identify shortfalls of the following year.

In the event of a shortfall, the SLDC will notify the DISCOM to undertake the necessary measures to address it.

The DISCOM must determine the optimum level of target or planning reserve margins through measures such as loss of load probability and normalized energy not served.

Power Procurement Planning

Procurement planning will comprise determining the optimal power procurement resource mix and selecting the procurement modalities, including the type and tenure.

It also entails engaging in capacity trading or sharing to minimize the risk of resource shortfall and to maximize the rewards of avoiding stranded capacity or contracted generation.

The outcome of the resource adequacy studies will provide the quantum and type of generation resources required by the DISCOM to meet the demand optimally.

The distribution licensee will contract for the optimal portfolio of resources to meet its future demand and RAR obligations, based on the output from the LT-NRAP study.

The DISCOM will take measures to contract additional power based on source-wise requirement, including power exchanges, based on LT-DRAP to meet its own peak demand, subject to approval by the Commission.

The DISCOM can either set up power projects to meet future demand or procure the required resources through the tariff-based competitive bidding guidelines.

Power procurement from renewable energy sources to fulfill RPO targets will be carried out, taking into account the state’s renewable energy potential.

The DISCOM can procure power on a short- and medium-term basis through the Discovery of Efficient Electricity Price portal and Portal for Utilisation of Surplus Power.

The distribution licensee can contract power through central agencies/intermediaries/traders/aggregators/power exchanges or through bilateral agreements/banking arrangements/capacity sharing with other distribution licensees.

DISCOMs must ensure the procurement process for the projected demand is undertaken and completed in advance, so that the procured capacity becomes available before the project load.

The procurement process must be completed in advance in the following ways:

 

The distribution licensee may procure additional power beyond the approved resource adequacy plan, subject to the Commission’s approval.

Data Storage

DISCOMs will maintain and share with the state transmission utility/SLDC all data related to demand assessment and forecasting, and must maintain at least the past 10 years of statistics in the database.

The distribution licensee shall share with SLDC information and data on existing and contracted capacities, including their technical and financial characteristics, for the computation of state-level capacity credit factors and the preparation of the state-level assessment.

SLDC will maintain the statistics and database about the aggregate demand assessment and forecasting data and share state-level assessments with the CEA and NLDC for regional/national assessment from time to time.

In alignment with broader power sector reforms and fiscal conditions imposed by the Union Government, KSERC ruled that intrastate power transmission projects costing above ₹2.5 billion (~$28.2 million) must be executed through the tariff-based competitive bidding route.

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