From Fossil Fuels to Renewables: The Middle East’s Role in Global Energy Transition
November 18, 2024
The global energy sector is undergoing transformative technological, social, and economic shifts, a reality emphasized during the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC). This month, the world’s largest energy gathering brought together over 200,000 participants in Abu Dhabi, highlighting the critical changes reshaping the industry.
While there is much to celebrate with the energy sector’s ongoing progress, from breakthrough innovations to increased investment, the event spotlighted emerging trends that position nearly everyone as a stakeholder in the future of energy and demand immediate attention.
ADIPEC highlighted the convergence of three powerful megatrends: the rise of emerging markets, the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI), and the urgent need for sustainable energy systems.
These forces demand collaborative, cross-sectoral action to forge a resilient, low-carbon energy future.
A foundational insight shared at ADIPEC 2024 was the rising influence of emerging markets on global energy dynamics. According to Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and ADNOC’s Managing Director and Group CEO, regions within the Global South are expected to drive a major portion of economic growth over the next few decades.
By 2050, the global population will rise by 1.7 billion, with much of this growth concentrated in rapidly urbanizing and industrializing emerging economies. This demographic shift creates an increase in energy demand, requiring an adaptive and scalable energy supply strategy.
“Wind and solar will expand sevenfold, LNG will grow by 65%, and demand for electricity will double,” Al Jaber noted in his keynote address.
Most of the speakers at the event agreed that this accelerated demand for energy necessitates not only an expansion in renewable energy capacities but also a balanced approach that includes transitional fuels like natural gas. By integrating these resources, emerging markets can achieve energy stability while scaling up renewable infrastructure.
During the various panel discussions, leaders noted that developing new energy solutions for emerging markets could hold the key to global economic stability and environmental stewardship. They also highlighted a pathway for companies to collaborate with governments in these regions to establish renewable projects catering to immediate and future needs as the traditional distinctions between energy supplier and consumer regions dissolve.
AI and energy
AI is both a major consumer of energy and a powerful tool for optimizing production and distribution. Its impact on energy systems is deep, especially as AI-driven tools like large language models require exponentially more computational power.
The energy-intensive nature of AI places a unique burden on data centers, which are projected to require 150 GW of installed capacity by 2030, doubling by 2040.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that by 2030, data centers alone will consume about 8% of total energy globally. Data centers currently consume about 1-1.5% of global energy and contribute to 0.3% of global emissions.
However, the UAE minister warned that AI’s energy consumption should not obscure its potential to transform energy production and management through efficiency and predictive analytics.
AI’s transformative potential in energy goes beyond efficiency. At ADIPEC, industry leaders explored its role in predictive maintenance, risk assessment, and demand management, where AI can analyze historical and real-time data to anticipate infrastructure requirements and improve grid stability.
However, AI’s rapid growth also presents the challenge of balancing its operational benefits with its energy footprint. Addressing this paradox will ensure AI’s role as a sustainable ally in the energy transition.
Transforming energy systems
With the global spotlight on climate change, the third megatrend, energy system transformation, was central to discussions at ADIPEC. The UAE, which hosts ADIPEC, has made strategic investments in renewable energy, low-carbon fuels, carbon capture, and storage technologies as essential steps in decarbonizing energy systems.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) ‘s diversification into international gas markets and its expansion in the chemicals sector reflect a commitment to developing an energy portfolio that meets both environmental and economic goals.
However, for this transition to succeed, the infrastructure itself must be modernized. It was revealed that the sector requires an estimated $1.5 trillion in annual investments in the power sector alone to build infrastructure “fit for purpose and fit for the future.”
These investments are essential for integrating renewable energy sources and enhancing grid resilience, storage capacity, and transmission efficiency to handle fluctuating supply and demand.
A recurring theme at ADIPEC was the critical role of collaboration in advancing energy system transformation. Leaders noted that strategic partnerships across public and private sectors are indispensable to drive innovations that can decarbonize energy production.
An IEA report last year said global investments in clean energy could reach an unprecedented $1.8 trillion in 2023, but this must increase significantly to about $4.5 trillion annually by early 2030 to align with the Net Zero Emissions scenario.
Call for cross-sectoral collaboration
The importance of collaboration resonated throughout ADIPEC 2024. Speakers agreed that the combination of rising energy demand, AI, and renewable transformation requires technological innovation and a concerted effort across industries and governments to establish a cohesive vision.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) echoed this call to action, which advocated for a balanced approach that integrates fossil fuels and renewables to ensure equitable access to energy worldwide.
Industry leaders explored ways to foster cooperation between the Global North and South. OPEC’s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais noted that the energy transition should prioritize emission reductions over an outright fossil fuel phase-out.
He pointed to OPEC’s initiatives like the OPEC Fund for International Development, which supports energy projects in Africa, and stressed the importance of technology exchanges among oil-producing nations to help emerging economies transition responsibly.
“The train is leaving the station,” Al Ghais warned, urging decision-makers to seize the opportunity to lead the industry toward sustainable practices or risk being left behind.
This sense of urgency was palpable across ADIPEC’s sessions, which highlighted that the energy sector’s ability to meet global demands hinges on collaborative leadership. This shared vision was demonstrated in partnerships focused on developing hydrogen infrastructure, establishing regional energy grids, and incentivizing private investments in clean energy technologies.
The role of green hydrogen
Green hydrogen was a prominent topic at ADIPEC, as it presents a promising solution for decarbonizing industries that are hard to electrify, such as steel, cement, and shipping. Alexey Ustinov, Siemens Energy’s Senior Vice President for Sustainable Energy Systems, highlighted green hydrogen’s potential as a clean fuel for sectors unable to transition to electrification fully.
Siemens Energy’s investment in a gigawatt-scale electrolyzer factory in Berlin aims to mass-produce electrolyzers, reducing production costs and making green hydrogen more accessible.
Otmane Benamar, CTO EMEA, Gas Power, GE Vernova, noted that supportive policies and financial incentives were urgently needed to stimulate demand for low-carbon hydrogen. However, he added that these must be paired with public-private partnerships to develop robust hydrogen infrastructure and improve logistics.
Speakers highlighted the need for collaboration among industry stakeholders to establish standardized off-take agreements and efficient supply chains, which would ensure a reliable, affordable hydrogen supply and enable widespread market activation.
Eugene McKenna, Senior Vice President for Hydrogen and Sustainable Technologies at Johnson Matthey, said that major advancements in Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolysis have been made, which could soon lower the cost of electrolyzers.
McKenna explained that PEM electrolysis is particularly compatible with renewable energy sources due to its adaptability to the intermittent nature of wind and solar power. This adaptability makes it ideal for regions like the Arabian Peninsula, where sun and wind power are available at different times of the day, creating a more stable energy output.
He also stressed the importance of efficiently using and recycling scarce platinum group metals, especially iridium, in PEM electrolysis.
Balancing reliability and decarbonization
As global energy demands grow, companies continue to play a key role in balancing the need for reliable power with decarbonization goals. Mavi Zingoni, CEO of Gas Power at GE Vernova, described the current energy transition as a “super cycle” shaped by rising power demands from data centers, AI, and electrified industries.
She noted that gas continues to play a major role as a flexible and dependable energy source that complements renewables and ensures stability in high-demand periods.
Innovations, such as hydrogen-burning gas turbines and investments in carbon capture technology, reflect traditional utilities’ commitment to low-carbon energy while providing reliable power solutions.
Zingoni noted that GE’s investments in Direct Air Capture and small modular reactors are part of a broader strategy to meet the dual objectives of energy security and sustainability.
The path forward: innovation, investment, and inclusion
ADIPEC 2024 made it clear that the future of energy is not just about small steps forward but bold transformations.
By harnessing AI for efficiency and modernizing energy systems, these advancements will bridge developed and emerging markets alike.
The event further confirmed the need for sustainability-led investments in the energy sector to empower global progress with lasting impact.