India imported more silver in the first four months of 2024 than it did in the whole of last year, and according to data from Silver Academy, it is set to double again.

The country imported 4,172 metric tons of silver between January and April 2024, surpassing 3,625 metric tons for all of 2023. This increase is driven by rising solar cell and module manufacturing, tightening global supply, and investor interest.

As the world accelerates its transition to renewable energy sources, silver has emerged as a critical component in photovoltaic (PV) technology, reshaping both the precious metals market and the future of clean energy.

Silver and silver paste prices are also on an upward trajectory. The price of silver has increased from around ₹2,000 (~$23.8)/oz in January this year to over ₹2,400 (~$28.6)/oz as of September 11.

Solar Manufacturing Capacity to Rise

Based on recent announcements and plans by major Indian solar manufacturers, solar cell manufacturing capacity will likely significantly increase over the next few years.

For instance, Tata Power has begun commercial production of 2 GW solar cells at its Tirunelveli facility in Tamil Nadu, with plans to reach a total capacity of 4.3 GW. Reliance Industries will launch its 10 GW solar module production at its Gujarat giga-factory by the end of 2024. Jakson Engineers is investing $240 million to build a 2.5 GW solar cell plant and expand its Greater Noida module facility to 2 GW. Jupiter International is setting up a 1.2 GW solar cell facility in Odisha. Grew Energy is developing a 3.2 GW solar module plant along with 2.8 GW of ingot, wafer, and cell capacity in Jammu & Kashmir. Other manufacturers like Adani and Waaree Energies are also expanding their capacities.

As India ramps up its domestic solar manufacturing capabilities, it will likely contribute significantly to this global trend of increasing silver demand. This could add pressure on silver supplies and prices in the coming years.

Role of Silver in Solar Technology

Silver is pivotal in solar cell production due to its unparalleled conductivity. The process involves converting silver into a paste, which is then loaded onto a silicon wafer. When light strikes the silicon, it liberates electrons, and silver efficiently carries the generated electricity for immediate use or storage in batteries.

The shift from p-type to n-type high-efficiency solar cells, such as Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TopCon) and Heterojunction (HJT) technologies, has significantly increased the demand for silver paste.

Mercom has reported on how solar technology is evolving towards the latest ToPCon module technology over its other mainstream rival – HJT (Heterojunction).

These advanced technologies, while promising higher efficiency, also drive the need for silver.

According to The Silver Institute (TSI), the global demand for silver in electrical and electronics applications last year saw a 20% increase compared to the previous year. Most notably, silver used in photovoltaics reached 193.5 million ounces (Moz), a 64%  increase from 118.1 Moz in 2022. Chinese silver industrial demand rose by a notable 44% to 261.2 Moz, primarily due to growth for green applications, mostly photovoltaic.

The Institute reports that silver used in photovoltaics has been a major growth driver, with usage increasing from 118.1 Moz in 2022 to 193.5 Moz in 2023, projected to rise to 232 Moz in 2024.

This trend is expected to continue, and demand for silver in the PV industry could increase by nearly 170% to 273 Moz by 2030, accounting for about one-fifth of total silver demand.

Impact on Solar Cell Manufacturing

Although module manufacturers are relatively insulated from silver price fluctuations, solar cell manufacturers face the brunt of market uncertainties.

A solar panel manufacturing company noted, “Only cell manufacturers have to worry about silver paste prices. We consume more copper than silver during the module manufacturing process.”

A fully integrated solar cell and module manufacturer highlighted the challenges in meeting current demand: “India’s domestic solar cell production capacity is only 3 GW annually, creating a significant supply-demand gap. This shortage could indirectly impact silver paste demand and pricing.”

The manufacturer also noted that as they adopt more advanced technologies, they’re grappling with significant increases in raw material costs, particularly for silver and copper pastes. “Module manufacturers are focusing on mono, bifacial, and TopCon technologies. However, we’re facing challenges with raw material costs. Prices for inputs like silver and copper paste have surged by over 40%,” the manufacturer said.

Price Trends

The increased demand for silver in the solar industry has significantly impacted global silver prices. Silver prices are rising on a yearly basis, to  $23.35 per ounce in 2023 from a previous rate of $21.73 per ounce in 2022, and are only expected to increase further, according to the  World Silver Survey 2024.

It notes a growing supply gap, with demand outpacing supply for three consecutive years.

This ongoing demand and supply dynamic suggests that silver prices may remain resilient. TSI predicts fluctuations between $23/oz and $30/oz in 2024, while some also suggest prices could reach as high as $50/oz.

The increase in prices has also resulted in a decline in the quality.

A Canada-headquartered renewable energy company pointed out quality concerns within India’s domestic market: “The Indian market has to upgrade its technology. Many manufacturers offer modules above 500W but use low-quality bus bars and silver components.”

According to Chetan Shah from Solex, setting up a cell facility takes up to two years. “Since silver is not used in large quantities, I don’t foresee a major challenge. Moreover, future technological advancements are likely to reduce silver consumption,” he added.

Challenges and Future

A study from the School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, UNSW Sydney, introduced a “silver learning curve” with a learning rate of 20.3 ± 0.8%. This curve illustrates the industry’s progress in reducing silver consumption as technology advances and production scales up.

Based on current trends with p-type technology domination, over 20% of annual silver production could be required for PV manufacturing, potentially consuming 85-98% of global silver reserves.

The study proposes a shift towards higher efficiency technologies like ToPCon and Silicon heterojunction cell technologies.

While these may initially increase silver usage, they also offer pathways for significant future reductions.