India is likely to have a peak surplus of 2.5 percent and an energy surplus of 4.6 percent, according to the Central Electricity Authority’s (CEA) latest Load Generation Balance Report (LGBR). The report studies the anticipated power supply position for financial year (FY) 2018-19.

The State-wide power supply position indicates that most of the states and union territories can anticipate having surplus energy, with the remaining states needing to arrange additional power to meet their peaking or energy shortages for FY 2018-19

According to the report, during the year 2017-18, a total of 23,119 circuit-km (ckm) of transmission lines and 86,193 MVA transformation capacity were added in central, state and private sectors. Furthermore, two 765 kV, twenty five 400 kV and another two 220 kV (totaling 2,307 ckm) of transmission lines were added in the private sector during this period.

Further, a generating capacity addition of 9,626.15 MW has been considered in the LGBR for 2018-19. These measures are expected to assist deficit states in reducing their shortages

Per CEA’s report; “Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Daman & Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Goa, DVC, West Bengal, Manipur, Meghalaya, Tripura, Andhra Pradesh and Sikkim are likely to have both peaking and energy surpluses on annual basis.”

Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Karnataka, Assam, and Puducherry are anticipated to have surplus on annual basis, though only in terms of energy.

For meeting this peak deficit, these states may procure power from surplus states. All other states in the country are likely to have demand-supply gap of varying degrees both in terms of energy and peaking.

The report also predicts that while the southern and eastern regions are likely to face a shortage of 0.7 percent and 4.2 percent respectively, the other three regions are likely to have surplus in the range of 1.9 to 22.9 percent, with 1.9 percent in the western region, 14.8 percent in the northern region, and 22.9 percent in the north-eastern region.

In absolute terms, the northern region is likely to have the highest energy surplus of 58.8 billion units (BUs) followed by the western and north-eastern regions with an anticipated surplus of 8.1 BU and 3.6 BU respectively.

The eastern region is projected to experience a deficit of 6.5 BU and the southern region a deficit of 2.4 BU. In terms of peaking – the eastern, western and north-eastern regions are likely to have peak surpluses of 4.9 percent, 9.3 percent, and 12.6 percent respectively while the northern and southern regions would face peak deficits of 1.2 percent and 4.5 percent respectively.

In absolute terms, the western region is likely to have the highest peaking surplus of 4.98 GW followed by the eastern and north-eastern regions with anticipated surpluses of 1.1 GW and 0.3 GW respectively. The southern and northern regions are anticipated to experience a deficit of 2.2 GW and 0.8 GW respectively.

According to the last year’s LGBR study, India expected a power surplus of 8.8 percent and peak surplus of 6.8 percent in the country during FY 2017-18.” The forecast turned out to be aggressive considering India’s actual power supply deficit came in at 0.7 percent and peak power deficit was 2 percent during financial year (FY) 2017-18.

During the year 2017-18, total ex-bus energy supplied increased by 6 percent over the previous year and the peak met increased by 2 percent. The energy requirement registered a growth of 6.2 percent during the year and peak demand registered a growth of 3 percent.

However, power cuts are a daily occurrence in many parts of India. Most utilities prefer cutting power than supplying electricity at a loss. Many states do not want to increase power prices to reflect increasing costs for the fear of consumer backlash.